{"id":964007,"date":"2025-11-17T10:27:18","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T09:27:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dmcsrb.com\/uncategorized\/jesenje-prognoze-ek-ocekuje-se-umjeren-ekonomski-rast-crne-gore-do-2027\/"},"modified":"2025-11-17T10:27:18","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T09:27:18","slug":"jesenje-prognoze-ek-ocekuje-se-umjeren-ekonomski-rast-crne-gore-do-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dmcsrb.com\/en\/ekonomija\/jesenje-prognoze-ek-ocekuje-se-umjeren-ekonomski-rast-crne-gore-do-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"Jesenje prognoze EK: O\u010dekuje se umjeren ekonomski rast Crne Gore do 2027."},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIako ve\u0107i raspolo\u017eivi dohodak i kreditna ekspanzija pokre\u0107u privatnu potro\u0161nju, oni su tako\u0111e doprinijeli vi\u0161oj inflaciji. Vanjski disbalansi su se pove\u0107ali zbog privremenog pada izvoza elektri\u010dne energije, usporenih turisti\u010dkih rezultata i sna\u017ene potra\u017enje za uvoznom robom\u201d, ocijenjeno je u progrnozi EK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dodaje se da postoje izgledi za umjeren ekonomski rast izme\u0111u 2025. i 2027. godine, sa postepenim oporavkom izvoza, dok se o\u010dekuje usporavanje rasta privatne potro\u0161nje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRevidirani bud\u017eet predvi\u0111a deficit od 3,5% BDP-a u 2025. godini, a o\u010dekuje se da \u0107e deficit prema\u0161iti 3% BDP-a tokom prognoziranog perioda, dok se o\u010dekuje da \u0107e javni dug porasti na preko 60% BDP-a\u201d, konstatuje se u ekonomskim prognozama EK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doma\u0107a tra\u017enja pokre\u0107e rast BDP-a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Realni rast BDP-a za 2024. godinu je revidiran navi\u0161e sa 3% na 3,2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEkonomija je porasla za 3,1% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu u prvoj polovini 2025. godine, vo\u0111ena sna\u017enim pove\u0107anjem investicija, koje su porasle za 7,4% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu, i privatnom potro\u0161njom, koja je porasla za 6,4% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu. Rast privatne potro\u0161nje je podr\u017ean vi\u0161im raspolo\u017eivim dohotkom i kreditnom ekspanzijom\u201d, navodi se u jesenjim prognozama EK za Crnu Goru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Navodi se i da su privremeno zatvaranje termoelektrane Pljevlja zbog rekonstrukcije i nadogradnje, kao i usporeni turisti\u010dki rezultati, doveli do negativnog rasta izvoza od 2,8% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cU me\u0111uvremenu, rast uvoza je ostao stabilan na 3,7% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu, \u0161to je rezultiralo negativnim doprinosom eksternog sektora BDP-u. Dr\u017eavna potro\u0161nja je umjereno porasla\u201d, ocjenjuje se u prognozama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U periodu 2025-27, predvi\u0111a se da \u0107e ekonomski rast ostati vjerovatno stabilan kre\u0107u\u0107i se oko 3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eSprovo\u0111enje programa \u201eEvropa sad 2.0\u201c, koji je obuhvatio smanjenje doprinosa za penzije, pove\u0107anje minimalne zarade i ubrzanje investicija u infrastrukturu, trebalo bi da podstakne privatnu potro\u0161nju i investicije u 2025. godini. O\u010dekuje se da \u0107e pozitivan uticaj na privatnu potro\u0161nju nestati u periodu 2026-27, dok \u0107e se rast investicija nastaviti zbog realizacije velikih putnih i \u017eeljezni\u010dkih projekata\u201c, navodi se u ekonomskim prognozama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O\u010dekuje se da \u0107e se izvoz oporaviti u periodu 2026-27 zahvaljuju\u0107i ponovnom otvaranju termoelektrane Pljevlja, dok se o\u010dekuje da \u0107e rast izvoza usluga, posebno turizma, ostati umjeren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201ePrognozira se da \u0107e rast uvoza usporiti u periodu 2026-27, u skladu sa usporavanjem doma\u0107e potra\u017enje. Deficit teku\u0107eg ra\u010duna se pove\u0107ao u prvoj polovini 2025. godine zbog lo\u0161ih rezultata izvoza robe, posebno elektri\u010dne energije, i usporene turisti\u010dke sezone. Suficit u bilansu sekundarnih dohodaka je opao, odra\u017eavaju\u0107i ve\u0107e teku\u0107e transfere, dok se suficit primarnih dohodaka neznatno pobolj\u0161ao, u skladu sa istorijskim trendom. Veliki deficiti teku\u0107eg ra\u010duna \u0107e se nastaviti i u 2026-27, uglavnom zbog rasta uvoza\u201c, konstatuje se u prognozama EK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pobolj\u0161anje situacije na tr\u017ei\u0161tu rada<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rast zaposlenosti, djelimi\u010dno podr\u017ean smanjenjem neformalne zaposlenosti usljed sprovo\u0111enja programa \u201eEvropa sad 2.0\u201c, nastavio se i u 2025. godini, a stopa nezaposlenosti pala je na novi rekordno nizak nivo od 10,7% u drugom kvartalu 2025. godine, navodi se u prognozama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eO\u010dekuje se da \u0107e rast zaposlenosti nastaviti da se usporava u 2026-27. godini, jer \u0107e ve\u0107e plate vjerovatno opteretiti stvaranje radnih mjesta u sektoru usluga\u201c, dodaje se u dokumentu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mjere doma\u0107e politike doprinose ponovnom rastu cjenovnih pritisaka<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflacija je ubrzana tokom 2025. godine sa 2,8% u odnosu na isti period pro\u0161le godine u januaru na 4,9% u septembru, konstatuje se u prognozama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eKlju\u010dni pokreta\u010di bili su zdravstvene usluge, smje\u0161taj, ugostiteljstvo i alkoholna pi\u0107a. Inflaciju u 2025. godini tako\u0111e pokre\u0107u doma\u0107i cjenovni pritisci koji proizilaze iz vi\u0161ih plata\u201c, navodi se u dokumentu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O\u010dekuje se da \u0107e inflacija biti umjerena u 2026-27. godini pod pretpostavkom da se politike ne promijene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eRizici po izglede BDP-a su usmereni nani\u017ee. Iako je izlo\u017eenost Crne Gore SAD ograni\u010dena, neizvjesno globalno okru\u017eenje i dalje predstavlja rizik od pada, zajedno sa sporijim oporavkom izvoza nego \u0161to se o\u010dekivalo. Pored toga, ve\u0107e plate optere\u0107uju konkurentnost sektora usluga. Rizici od porasta su povezani sa ubrzanom implementacijom investicionog programa i Reformske agende u okviru Plana rasta EU, za koju se o\u010dekuje da \u0107e pobolj\u0161ati poslovno okru\u017eenje\u201c, predvi\u0111a se u prognozama EK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bud\u017eetski deficiti \u0107e se nastaviti<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Od januara do avgusta bud\u017eet je podbacio i zabilje\u017eio deficit od 0,9% projektovanog BDP-a, u pore\u0111enju sa ciljanim deficitom od 3,5% za cijelu 2025. godinu, konstatuje EK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eRast prihoda je podr\u017ean sna\u017enim u\u010dinkom PDV-a, akciza i poreza na dohodak gra\u0111ana, dok su doprinosi za penzije i prihodi od grantova bili ni\u017ei od o\u010dekivanih. Potro\u0161nju su pokretale investicije, socijalni transferi i tro\u0161kovi kamata\u201c, navodi se u prognozama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U odsustvu dodatnih mera konsolidacije, EK predvi\u0111a da \u0107e se deficit op\u0161te dr\u017eave pove\u0107ati 2025. godine i ostati iznad 3% BDP-a u periodu 2026-27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201ePredvi\u0111a se da \u0107e se javni dug postepeno pove\u0107avati, vo\u0111en stalnim bud\u017eetskim deficitima. U martu je Crna Gora izdala rekordnu koli\u010dinu evroobveznica od 850 miliona eura, \u0161to iznosi oko 10,7% projektovanog BDP-a. Ravnote\u017ea rizika po fiskalne izglede ostaje nagnuta nani\u017ee zbog oslanjanja na poreze na potro\u0161nju i visoke obavezne potro\u0161nje\u201c, zaklju\u010duje se u jesenjim ekonomskim prognozama EK koje se odnose na Crnu Goru.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ekonomski rast Crne Gore nastavio se stopom od oko 3% u prvoj polovini 2025. godine, podr\u017ean sna\u017enom doma\u0107om potra\u017enjom, navodi se u Jesenjim ekonomskim prognozama Evropske komisije (EK) za 2025. godinu.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":909056,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[95,823,4297,14622],"naslovna":[],"class_list":["post-964007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomija","tag-crna-gora","tag-ek","tag-ekonomski-rast","tag-jesenje-prognoze"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJesenje prognoze EK: O\u010dekuje se umjeren ekonomski rast Crne Gore do 2027. - dmcsrb.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dmcsrb.com\/en\/ekonomija\/jesenje-prognoze-ek-ocekuje-se-umjeren-ekonomski-rast-crne-gore-do-2027\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jesenje prognoze EK: O\u010dekuje se umjeren ekonomski rast Crne Gore do 2027. - 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