{"id":959063,"date":"2025-10-20T20:25:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T18:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dmcsrb.com\/uncategorized\/tri-moguca-scenarija-za-trampa-i-madura\/"},"modified":"2025-10-20T20:25:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T18:25:00","slug":"tri-moguca-scenarija-za-trampa-i-madura","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dmcsrb.com\/en\/svijet\/tri-moguca-scenarija-za-trampa-i-madura\/","title":{"rendered":"Tri mogu\u0107a scenarija za Trampa i Madura"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mogu\u0107e je da \u0107e naredni ameri\u010dki napadi ciljati nove po\u0161iljke droge ili ilegalne letove sa granice Venecuele i Kolumbije. Ali poslije nekoliko sru\u0161enih brodova, postavlja se pitanje: Koji je krajnji cilj Va\u0161ingtona?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Venecuelanci koji se protive predsjedniku Nikolasu Maduru su se nedavno probudili uz iznena\u0111uju\u0107e ohrabruju\u0107e vijesti: liderka opozicije\u00a0Marija Korina Ma\u0107ado dobila je Nobelovu nagradu za mir.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Norve\u0161ki Nobelov komitet prepoznao je njen neumorni rad na povratku demokratije u Venecueli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na neki na\u010din, nagrada ne odaje priznanje samo Ma\u0107adovoj, ve\u0107 i milionima Venecuelanaca \u017eeljnih promjene, koji su se okupili oko nje uo\u010di predsjedni\u010dkih izbora 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ipak, izgled za mirnu demokratsku tranziciju i dalje je neizvjestan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ma\u0107adova ima bliske veze sa nekoliko \u010dlanova administracije ameri\u010dkog predsjednika Donalda Trampa, uklju\u010duju\u0107i dr\u017eavnog sekretara Marka Rubija. Ali od januara, kada je Tramp opet preuzeo funkciju predsjednika SAD, Bijela ku\u0107a \u0161alje mje\u0161ovite poruke o svojoj politici prema Karakasu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U po\u010detku se \u010dinilo da Trampova administracija zauzima pragmati\u010dniji, transakcioni pristup u odnosima sa Madurom. Me\u0111utim, posljednjih mjeseci njene akcije postaju mnogo agresivnije. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

SAD su u septembru poslale veliku mornari\u010dku flotu u Karibe, tvrde\u0107i da je cilj operacije suzbijanje trgovine kokainom, fentanilom i drugim drogama koje prolaze kroz Venecuelu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ameri\u010dka avijacija je do sada bombardovala najmanje pet civilnih brodova za koje se tvrdi da su prevozili narkotike. Demokratski kongresmeni izrazili su zabrinutost zbog neodobrenih napada, u kojima je poginulo najmanje 27 ljudi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O\u010dekivanja da \u0107e SAD krenuti militantnijim putem u Venecueli sve su ve\u0107a, prenosi Nova<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nakon raspore\u0111ivanja ameri\u010dkih snaga u Karibima, Ma\u0107adova je svojim pristalicama poru\u010dila da su “Madurovi dani odbrojani” i da je re\u017eim “gotov”. Mnogi Venecuelanci, ogor\u010deni godinama represije i ekonomskog kolapsa, sada naga\u0111aju kada, a ne da li \u0107e Tramp poslati marince u njihovu zemlju.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U srijedu je\u00a0Tramp potvrdio da je ve\u0107 naredio CIA da sprovodi tajne operacije unutar Venecuele.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Istog dana, u intervjuu za CNN, Ma\u0107adova je pozvala SAD da pomognu u borbi protiv Madurovog “rata”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na pitanje da li Bijela ku\u0107a razmatra napade na ciljeve na venecuelanskoj teritoriji, Tramp nije \u017eelio da isklju\u010di tu mogu\u0107nost, rekav\u0161i samo: “Pa, vidje\u0107ete.” U istom obra\u0107anju dodao je: “Ve\u0107 imamo kontrolu nad morem, sada svakako gledamo i na kopno.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovo su tri mogu\u0107a scenarija o tome \u0161ta bi se moglo desiti:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Ustanak unutar Venecuele<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Prvi scenario zahtijevao bi da nezadovoljni pripadnici vojske ili opozicioni protesti, ili kombinacija jednog i drugog, podignu ustanak protiv Madura. Ma\u0107adova je ve\u0107 pozvala bezbjednosne snage na “neposlu\u0161nost” u znak priznanja opozicione pobjede.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Takva pobuna mogla bi da ra\u010duna na ameri\u010dku logisti\u010dku, obavje\u0161tajnu ili \u010dak direktnu podr\u0161ku iz karipske flote, ali Va\u0161ington ne bi vodio glavni udar. Kao i 2019, kada su SAD priznale Huana Gvaida kao “privremenog predsjednika” Venecuele, Tramp bi i sada radije djelovao iz pozadine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Me\u0111utim, autenti\u010dni ustanak Venecuelanaca malo je vjerovatan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maduro je poslije pro\u0161logodi\u0161njih izbora ugu\u0161io opoziciju. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ma\u0107adova je u bjekstvu, kandidat Edmundo Gonzales napustio je zemlju, a preostali opozicionari su podijeljeni oko strategije – da li u\u010destvovati na lokalnim izborima pod kontrolom re\u017eima, ili organizovati otpor. Bezbjednosni aparat i tajne slu\u017ebe i dalje su \u010dvrsto lojalni re\u017eimu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Direktni napad Amerike<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Drugi scenario bio bi direktan ameri\u010dki napad. Va\u0161ington bi mogao da sprovede preventivni udar na vojne ciljeve Venecuele, pra\u0107en likvidacijama ili hap\u0161enjima najvi\u0161ih funkcionera, pa \u010dak i poku\u0161ajem da Maduro bude uhap\u0161en i izveden pred sud. Visoki zvani\u010dnici Trampove administracije nisu isklju\u010dili takvu mogu\u0107nost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ipak, postoje ozbiljni razlozi za skepsu. Venecuela posjeduje sposoban sistem protivvazdu\u0161ne odbrane, barem na papiru: mre\u017eu S-125 pe\u010dora, ZU-23-2 topova, igla-S raketa, kao i nekoliko S-300VM antej-2500 sistema dugog dometa. Ozbiljna ameri\u010dka operacija morala bi najprije da neutralizuje te sisteme – \u0161to bi zna\u010dilo otvoreni sukob sa vojskom Venecuele.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Takav rat bio bi izuzetno rizi\u010dan. Mogao bi da preraste u dugotrajni konflikt, pa i da se pro\u0161iri na susjedne zemlje. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Venecuela posjeduje ogromne koli\u010dine oru\u017eja, aktivne kolumbijske gerilce i hiljade \u010dlanova prore\u017eimskih paramilitarnih grupa – “kolektiva”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pored njih, postoji i Bolivarska milicija, civilni korpus koji Maduro posljednjih nedjelja aktivno obu\u010dava.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ako Tramp ne bude oprezan, unilateralna vojna akcija mogla bi Venecuelu pretvoriti u novu Libiju – u haos svega tri sata leta od Majamija.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Politi\u010dki dogovor sa Madurom<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Najvjerovatniji scenario, iako najmanje zadovoljavaju\u0107i za Venecuelance, je diplomatski dogovor. Maduro vjerovatno ra\u010duna da \u0107e Tramp uskoro \u017eeljeti proglasiti pobjedu poslije niza pomorskih napada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U septembru je Maduro poslao pismo Trampu nude\u0107i pregovore. Doskora je ameri\u010dki izaslanik Ri\u010dard Grenel odr\u017eavao kontakt sa re\u017eimom uz Trampovo odobrenje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kada postane jasno da Madurova vlast nije uzdrmana, Tramp bi mogao da se vrati pragmati\u010dnom pristupu – koriste\u0107i kanale sa Grenelom kako bi promovisao ameri\u010dke interese u oblasti energetike, migracija i regionalne bezbjednosti, umjesto pukog “promovisanja demokratije”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mogu\u0107i novi sporazum mogao bi biti javan – poput razmjene zatvorenika iz jula i dozvole kompaniji “Chevron” da posluje u Venecueli – ili tajni, kao postoje\u0107i dogovor po kojem SAD dva puta nedjeljno deportuju Venecuelance direktno u njihovu zemlju.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0160ta bi Va\u0161ington trebalo da uradi<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Svaki dogovor SAD mora da obuhvati politi\u010dku krizu Venecuele.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Va\u0161ington bi trebalo da insistira na osloba\u0111anju vi\u0161e od 800 politi\u010dkih zatvorenika, kao i na ukidanju represije nad opozicijom i civilnim dru\u0161tvom. Najva\u017enije je, me\u0111utim, obnoviti demokratske institucije.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tramp ne mora da po\u010dinje od nule. Jo\u0161 2020. njegova prva administracija predstavila je Okvir za demokratsku tranziciju, koji je predvi\u0111ao zajedni\u010dku prelaznu vladu opozicije i re\u017eima, uz postepeno ukidanje sankcija i slobodne izbore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tramp i Rubio mogli bi sada da “otresu pra\u0161inu” sa tog plana i ponovo ga pokrenu – nude\u0107i postepeni put ka reformama, a ne iluziju o “trenutnoj promjeni re\u017eima”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ipak, svaka budu\u0107a inicijativa mora biti mjerljiva, vremenski ograni\u010dena i provjerljiva, jer je Maduro vi\u0161e puta koristio dijalog da kupi vrijeme i izbjegne pritisak. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O\u010dekivanja da \u0107e SAD krenuti militantnijim putem u Venecueli sve su ve\u0107a.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":959064,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[4801,2045],"naslovna":[],"class_list":["post-959063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-svijet","tag-maduro","tag-tramp"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTri mogu\u0107a scenarija za Trampa i Madura - dmcsrb.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dmcsrb.com\/en\/svijet\/tri-moguca-scenarija-za-trampa-i-madura\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tri mogu\u0107a scenarija za Trampa i Madura - 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